We looked at Alternative Investments/ Commercial Real Estate 2025 Outlook Part 1 in our last post. We will review self-storage, student housing, multifamily, and senior housing in that post. We will continue is Office, Medical Office, Industrial in this writing.
February 13, 2025
By Al DiNicola, AIF®
DST 1031 Specialist & Alternative Real Estate Advisor
NAMCOA® – Naples Asset Management Company®, LLC
Securities offered through MSC-BD, LLC, Member of FINRA/SIPC
Retail, Life Science, Data Center and technology will be future featured articles. To access the previous post, click here. Alternative Investments/CRE 2025 Outlook Part 1 – DST Education and Market News
Office
There is a move in many sectors to increase office attendance. We have recently seen this on a federal level for a number of philosophical, financial and potential political reasons. The private sector companies have also begun to require in-person employees. These are in the form of mandates. Stay tuned to see if this strategy will work and create increased productivity.
Underperforming assets is the focus of discussion. Property owners may consider conversion into other uses (if local ordinances approve). Conversion into alternative uses may solve other demand for assets in some areas. Older buildings with high vacancy rates may simply not have the required demands of certain tenants. Recently an insurance company in Chicago vacated a much larger building and moved into a 40% smaller building. While there was a loss of rental space the rents were higher in the newer building, that provided better functionality and use for the employee. Better use may translate to more productivity. Tenants are demanding top tier properties.
There is also limited new construction created by a combination of higher interest rates and increased construction cost. Properties that can be delivered quickly (with tenant improvements) and quicker occupancy should be very appealing in many markets.
Many of the Delaware Statutory Trust (DST) offerings have been large credit tenants repositioning their real estate owned as a sale lease back. The sale enables the company access to cash for upgrading facilities, equipment or expansion. The long lease terms and triple net feature of the DST offering are advantageous to investors.
Typically, all real estate is local. On a national level the office vacancy rate hit a record high of 17.7% in 2024 and is projected to rise another 100 basis points, to near 19% by the end of 2025 (according to CBRE).
Some of the other points are:
- Lease Rates: Asking rents have risen steadily post-COVID, their rate of growth is expected to remain below 1% with isolated new development.
- Limited tenant demand for older buildings with fewer amenities is forcing owners to begin dropping rates to draw interest.
- Net absorption is anticipated to stay flat over the near term as the nation’s uneven recovery unfolds. Demand will likely stagnate in the first half of the year as companies cautiously evaluate economic conditions and federal policy shifts under the new administration.
- New construction starts will remain on hold, hindered by elevated labor and material costs and subdued demand.
Medical Office Building is much different than Office.
CBRE forecasts that MOB asking rents will rise by up to 1.8% in each of 2025 and 2026 and vacancies will decline slightly to 9.46% by the end of 2025 from 9.57% in this year’s third quarter. There is a growing demand for healthcare services including outpatient surgery centers. This market is also being fueled by the demographic indicators of baby boomers. There will be more and more demand, which is good news for investors.
The are many types of facilities including doctors’ offices, clinics, urgent care centers as well as buildings associated with hospitals. Some of the centers being offered as DST are smaller in size and may be all cash offerings rather than having any debt.
One of the other interesting factors is the rise in employment in the healthcare sector. This sector outpaced the overall growth rate. Healthcare job growth continued to be an economic driver in 2024, creating 686,600 jobs over the 12-month span and accounting for 31% of the 2.2 million jobs created in the overall economy last year. (Healthcare Powered U.S. Job Growth in 2024 | Health Leaders Media)
Additionally, MOB sales volume increased to $2.51 billion in 2024’s third quarter, up 48% from a year earlier. That marked the second consecutive year-over-year increase following nearly two years of declines. DST offerings were limited in scope and tended to be all cash offerings. This may create a challenge for investors executing a 1031 tax deferred exchange with a debt replacement requirement.
There continues to be interest in the Industrial Asset class
Large fulfillment centers and last mile destination centers are still in demand. Not only is amazon still building but there are also other large distribution centers being developed for automakers. There are also smaller warehouses (such as flex spaces) that may be bigger opportunities. Developers are delivering additional small offerings to satisfy the demand. The construction starts are expected by late 2025. This will be only in markets where the supply and demand balance has returned. Construction costs, interest rates and potential regulatory issues may delay some projects.
A few years ago, the Supply Chain issue surrounded many aspects of the economy. Much has ease since COVID. However, it is projected there will be pressures and risks, disruptions, delays, and high costs will continue. In 2025, last-mile delivery solutions will be crucial to boosting agility by ensuring more reliable deliveries. More companies will adopt route optimization strategies and crowdsourced delivery networks to improve the last mile and adapt to unexpected delays, making the supply chain more resilient and flexible.
There is a continued effort to ease supply chain issues with near shoring & re-shoring. This is an attempt to get more product “On Shore” meaning in the USA. This also is a good indicator for the industrial sector. The new administration has a mission to bring more manufacturing back to the USA. Another good long-term sign for industrial. The DST industrial offerings over the past two years have nearly outpaced the multifamily offerings in numbers of offerings as well as volume of offerings. Some industrial offerings may be small bay flex spaces to one million square feet of auto parts distribution warehouses. However, as of February 2025 the available industrial DST offerings have decreased, indicating active investor interest as well as directing investment dollars to this asset class.
We want to thank many of the sponsors who have provided 2024 and 2025 analysis including Inland-Investments, Capital Square, Cantor Fitzgerald, Brookfield, Starwood, CBRE, and others.
NAMCOA® is a SEC registered investment advisory firm that provides comprehensive portfolio management, financial planning, and fiduciary decision-making services on behalf of retirement plan sponsors. Our Difference is summarized by our fiduciary approach which enables us to better meet portfolio and retirement plan objectives, resulting in stronger risk adjusted returns for investors and peace of mind for Clients. We also focus on alternative real estate investment. Many real estate investors are seeking tax deferred solutions utilizing §1031 exchanges or Opportunity Zones.
DSTs are not for all investors. The acquisition of a DST is for accredited investors only. Contact your investment adviser for additional details on how a DST may be a solution to your 1031 Exchange and suited for your investment future. For more information on how to properly set up an IRC 1031Tax Deferred Exchange or if you are an accredited investor and would like additional information on a DST contact Al DiNicola at 239-691-8098 or email adinicola@namcoa.com.
This is not an offer to purchase or solicitation to purchase any security, as such be made only through an offering memorandum or prospectus. Investing in securities, real estate, or any investment, whether public or private, involves risk, including but not limited to the potential of losing some or all of your investment dollars when you invest in securities. You should review any planned financial transactions that may have tax or legal implications with your personal tax or legal advisor. NAMCOA, LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor, regulated by SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission). Our corporate office is located at 999 Vanderbilt Beach Road, Suite 200, Naples Florida 34108. Securities Offered through MSC-BD, LLC, Member of FINRA/SIPC. 8215 SW Tualatin- Sherwood Rd, Suite 200, Tualatin, OR 97062. MSC-BD, LLC and NAMCOA are independently owned and are not affiliated.
Thank you.